Cyclical stocks may be racing higher, but tech is still expected to be a long-term winner

first_img“You can see why people go crazy over them. I think there will be more juice for them in 2021,” he added. “In 2020 alone, the performance gap 70%. If the market is up 10% in the next year, the stocks at the epicenter could be up 80%. There’s that much juice in them … It’s stocks like Six Flags, it’s what you think was hit hardest in social distancing.” But Lee stresses that tech is still core and important to hold. “The revenue growth is going to be superior to the overall market,” he said. “I think it’s got legs. I think more money comes from the sidelines, so I’m not selling growth or tech.”He also expects the market to keep rising into the end of the year, and his S&P 500 target of 3,250 is too low with the market now trading above 3,600. “My target makes no sense because we’re in the fourth quarter, and there’s a Santa rally coming,” he said.‘Lousy fourth quarter’The S&P was up 0.7% Monday afternoon, and the Dow rose more than 1%. The small cap Russell 2000 jumped another 1.8%, heading to another record close. But the Nasdaq lagged, up just 0.4%.Lee said there are concerns that will worry investors, and the rapidly spreading virus will continue to hobble the economy even as the market can rally.“I think it’s going to be a lousy fourth quarter and I think that’s what everyone is bracing for,” he said. “Nobody thought the vaccine was going to change the fourth quarter, but now we won’t have to think the fourth quarter is what the next six quarters will look like. Stocks do bottom nine months before the economy. If the vaccine is going to be in the summer, then all the cyclicals should be rallying now.”Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said he downgraded technology to market weight last week but he’s still positive on the group even with the vaccine trade. “It still won’t really be opening up the economy until late second quarter, third quarter next year. We still have a long way to go to experience a weaker economy. Let’s not be too quick to give up on that growth that’s served us well,” he said.The big internet names, such as Facebook, may not gain at the same pace they did previously, but within the technology trade there are sub-sectors that have good momentum. They include tech hardware, systems software, semiconductors, applications software and semiconductor equipment, he said.Some parts of tech are a cyclical trade like semiconductors and semiconductor equipment. Semiconductors were up 1.6% Monday.“What all of this means is the leadership of the market is broadening out,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “You want to have both. You just want to rebalance.” FANG may be lagging, but don’t count technology stocks out.Positive news on vaccines has spurred buying in cyclical stocks that should do well when the economy is running at full speed again. Last week, tech stocks, and high-flying FANG names, sold off after Pfizer’s positive vaccine news drove investors into many of the stocks that have been lagging since the economic shutdowns last March.Moderna’s positive vaccine news sparked the same reaction Monday, with FANG names — Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet — all trading flat to lower but tech gained about a half percent. Facebook and Alphabet are in the communication services sector and that sector was also up just slightly, compared to a 6.3% gain in energy; a 3.4% jump in airlines and a 2% increase in industrials.- Advertisement – Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.NYSE “The money is coming from the sidelines so that money goes into stocks and it’s going to push everything higher, especially if growth and tech is 75% of the market,” said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat. “People are taking cash off the sidelines and buying market exposure. It’s going to lift all boats.”Netflix and Facebook are considered stay-at-home stock plays that should benefit if the economy is shut down or people opt to stay at home to avoid the virus.“I think the active equity manager made a lot of money on stay-at-home stocks. Now, there’s tailwinds for the cyclical trade,” said Lee. He said those companies at the epicenter, like airlines or hotels, have cut costs and should see a topline recovery.- Advertisement –center_img – Advertisement – – Advertisement –last_img read more

Sunday blog: Talking Shockers, Coley Buellesfeld, Patriot Guard, and Louise Galveston

first_imgCommentary by Tracy McCue, Sumner Newscow — Five Cueball thoughts for March 23, 2014… 4. Spring break…I went into this week with every intention of attacking my “To do” list with fervor and conviction.Here’s the problem with spring break. It is so spring break.My Newscow to-do list is as long as it was at the beginning of the week. I had massive plans for the backyard that are still massive plans. The improved McCue yard looks great… in my mind! It’s either too cold to do anything outside, or if the weather is great, I’m not wasting precious legitimate great outside time with work.The kids are home and they have needs to be attended to – for example driving them to a movie or Laser Tag sessions. And who can work when the NCAA Basketball Tournament is being shown on the nearest TV screen?Next year, I promise, I’ll have a very productive spring break week. 5. Shout out of the week…Congratulations to local author Louise Galveston for her book “By the Grace of Todd.”Galveston’s book is currently No. 1 on the Watermark Bestsellers list for the week of March 16, 2014.So who is Galveston? Well she looks like a familiar Wellington lady. But because I’m not allowed to divulge her real name because of publishing orders, we’ll know her only as “Louise.”“Louise Galveston” not to be confused with you-know-who.According to her biography, Galveston is a writer, playwright, and director of children’s theater. She lives with her husband in the Midwest and, like Todd, she presides over a small civilization of her own: a parrot, cockatiel, horse, African dwarf frog, and eleven tiny people who happen to be her children! Come visit her (and the Toddlians!) at www.bythegraceoftodd.com.“By the Grace of Todd” is a laugh-out-loud answer to what happens if you leave dirty laundry on the floor, and don’t follow your mother’s instructions to clean your room.You can buy the book here: http://www.watermarkbooks.com/book/9781595146779 1. NCAA basketball tournament…The NCAA Basketball tournament is the best sporting event of the year. Yes, the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl are great, but those are usually events that culminate a year of watching football. I don’t necessarily watch a lot of college basketball until this tournament. But I always get addicted – whether it’s filling out my terribly misguided brackets, cheering for the Kansas teams, or my fascination with geography. Did you know Mercer is in Georgia? I may send one of my kids there just because that basketball team beat Duke on Friday. This year’s tournament is especially intriguing because it contains our Shockers, who are pretty good. People call me a bandwagon fan, but this Shocker team has been so fun to watch all year long and the players seem so, well, cool, that you can’t help but like the team. I’ve been impressed by the way Gregg Marshall conducts himself as the WSU basketball coach. Sumner Newscow readers who won’t jump on this bandwagon for some morale stance, are missing quite a fun ride. Really you “be true to one school” dudes, you can love your KU or K-State or whomever and cheer for the Shockers. No one is going to execute you.As of this writing, I have no idea if WSU beat Kentucky. I hope so. Kentucky typifies what is wrong with college basketball – a bunch of one-and-done NBA recruits, who are there only because the NBA said they had to stay there for a year. Also the coach may be a snake. 3. Hater dies…Fred Phelps died.Good riddance.But let me pose this question: Did his existence somehow in someway make this world a better place?The disgusting Westboro Baptist Church protests did lead to the formation of the Patriot Guard Riders — a group of motorcycle riders originating in Mulvane, who attends the funerals of members of the armed forces, firefighters and police at the invitation of the deceased family.The group is an honor guard who protects mourners from the filth that is the Phelps clan. The Patriot Guard has also evolved into filling out the ranks at burials of indigent soldiers, and performing volunteer work for veteran’s organizations such as Veterans Home.I’d like to think that will be Phelps’ legacy. In his attempt to spread hate, love was countered, and the Patriot Guard Riders organization was born.The Patriot Guard Riders are heroes. 2. Coley Buellesfeld…Coley Buellesfeld with his daughter at a statute in Kiev.Coley Buellesfeld, a 1985 Wellington High School graduate and brother of our own J.P. Buellesfeld, finds himself in a unique situation in a unique time in history.He is currently living in Kiev, Ukraine – a country embattled in a border war with Russia.A few week ago I contacted Buellesfeld at his home. For security reasons, I really couldn’t divulge much of what he’s doing over there except that he is working at the U.S, Embassy and his wife has an even more secretive job. One of the main reasons the Harvard graduate and his wife are there is to educate their daughter the Russian native language, who also masters English, French and German.Buellesfeld assured me that while the political climate is indeed unstable in the region, he feels perfectly safe. The other day he posted on his Facebook of first-hand pictures of actual Euromaidan protests in Kiev that helped lead to the removal of Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych. Those pictures showed the burning of the Trade Union House, Molotov cocktails and the front line fighting.But Buellesfeld said even while watching the protests live that we saw on national news, he never felt his life was in danger. The small demonstrations were contained within a block.“Let’s say the demonstrations were occurring in Wellington and the demonstrations were downtown on Washington and Harvey,” Buellesfeld said.  “If you were living out by the Pizza Hut, you would be perfectly safe and not really know what is going on unless you were watching the news.”Buellesfeld said Kiev is a huge city. Crimnea is a 16 hour drive, and he isn’t sure Putin has it in him to make an all-out assault. Close Forgot password? Please put in your email: Send me my password! Close message Login This blog post All blog posts Subscribe to this blog post’s comments through… RSS Feed Subscribe via email Subscribe Subscribe to this blog’s comments through… RSS Feed Subscribe via email Subscribe Follow the discussion Comments (3) Logging you in… Close Login to IntenseDebate Or create an account Username or Email: Password: Forgot login? Cancel Login Close WordPress.com Username or Email: Password: Lost your password? Cancel Login Dashboard | Edit profile | Logout Logged in as Admin Options Disable comments for this page Save Settings Sort by: Date Rating Last Activity Loading comments… You are about to flag this comment as being inappropriate. Please explain why you are flagging this comment in the text box below and submit your report. The blog admin will be notified. Thank you for your input. +11 Vote up Vote down Proud Crusader · 333 weeks ago Thanks for update on Coley Buellesfeld. Thank you for reminding us of how great our schools are in wellington,ks. Coley is another example of a great wellington high school graduate. Harvard Graduate, Successful business career and now service with the US State Department! Report Reply 0 replies · active 333 weeks ago +6 Vote up Vote down anonymous · 333 weeks ago Tracy, those aren’t patriot guard in your photo. Those patches (look closely) are a *real* motorcycle club – the “US Military Veterans MC.” They are an actual recognized MC and have a national HQ. You must be an honorably discharged veteran to even hang around with the USMVMC. Their members have to probate for months and be voted in. They have clubhouses, bylaws, and a leadership staff. They also do good work and raise money and they’re capable of lots of things. And yes, they are heroes. Every last one of them. Just thought you should know who is in your photo. Report Reply 1 reply · active 333 weeks ago +1 Vote up Vote down CueballSumnernewscow 94p · 333 weeks ago I’m having trouble locating a Patriot Guard picture of the local variety. If you could send me one with them riding with American flags to my e-mail at sumnernewscow@gmail.com, I would be greatly appreciated. Report Reply Post a new comment Enter text right here! Comment as a Guest, or login: Login to IntenseDebate Login to WordPress.com Login to Twitter Go back Tweet this comment Connected as (Logout) Email (optional) Not displayed publicly. Name Email Website (optional) Displayed next to your comments. Not displayed publicly. If you have a website, link to it here. Posting anonymously. Tweet this comment Submit Comment Subscribe to None Replies All new comments Comments by IntenseDebate Enter text right here! Reply as a Guest, or login: Login to IntenseDebate Login to WordPress.com Login to Twitter Go back Tweet this comment Connected as (Logout) Email (optional) Not displayed publicly. Name Email Website (optional) Displayed next to your comments. Not displayed publicly. If you have a website, link to it here. Posting anonymously. Tweet this comment Cancel Submit Comment Subscribe to None Replies All new commentslast_img read more